Policy Tracker

The number of people actually entering the country illegally has dropped to an estimated 2,000 per month - down from an estimated 140,000 per month at the FY2023 peak. This includes both known "gotaways" detected by sensors but not apprehended and undetected crossings. Encounters (apprehensions + inadmissibles) are at ~5,000/month, but the key figure is how many actually make it in.

Of the ~393,000 ICE arrests since January 2025, approximately 37% (145,000) had criminal convictions beyond immigration offenses. Violent crimes include homicide (2,100), sexual assault (5,400), assault (43,000), and robbery (2,700). Non-violent but serious crimes include DUI (~30,000), drug offenses (22,600), weapons charges (6,100), and fraud/theft. An additional 227,000 have pending criminal charges. 7,000+ gang members arrested including MS-13 and Tren de Aragua. 1,538 known or suspected terrorists have been arrested, with 1,534 already removed.

DHS claims 622,000 removals and 1.9 million self-deportations, but independent tracking (TRAC, Deportation Data Project) puts verified formal removals at approximately 290,000-350,000. Brookings estimates 210,000-405,000 voluntary departures; the Dallas Fed estimates net unauthorized immigration averaged -48,000 per month through mid-2025. Note: 73% of those booked into ICE custody by late 2025 had no criminal conviction.

Since the Immigration Act of 1990 took effect, the yearly average has been roughly 1 million legal admissions per year. That is far too high. In the 30 years before that (1960-1990), the average was closer to 400,000. An 80% reduction from current levels - down to approximately 200,000 per year - is what it would take to return to sustainable numbers. The 75-country visa freeze and $100K H-1B fee are chipping away at the pipeline, but the annual cap has not changed.

The reality is that executive action alone cannot fix this. What is needed is legislative reform - specifically reverting the Immigration Act of 1990. That single law raised caps across the board, created H-1B, and set the stage for 35 years of mass immigration. Family-based visas account for ~65% of green cards, and the diversity visa lottery admits 50,000 per year. None of these have been addressed by Congress. Until the 1990 Act is replaced, legal immigration stays near 1 million per year.

Before the Immigration Act of 1990, America had the H-1 visa - a straightforward work permit for foreign professionals with "distinguished merit and ability." The H-1 had no lottery, no cap, and no industry capture. Annual admissions were roughly 35,000-50,000 because the bar was genuinely high. The 1990 Act replaced H-1 with H-1B, added a 65,000 cap (later expanded to 85,000 with advanced-degree exemptions), and created the random lottery that let companies flood the system with 400,000+ petitions per year for mid-level workers.

The goal is to effectively revert to the old H-1 model. The $100,000 supplemental fee (September 2025) prices out cheap-labor users. The wage-weighted lottery (February 2026) prioritizes the highest-paid workers. Together, these changes should reduce actual H-1B usage to pre-1990 H-1 levels - around 35,000-50,000 genuinely exceptional workers per year, not 400,000 petitions from outsourcing firms.

This section is harder to measure because there is no fixed target number - the goal is straightforward: if immigration fraud is found, it should lead to denaturalization. The challenge is building the legal pipeline to make that happen at scale.

The detection side is working: USCIS has completed 19,300 fraud cases with a 65% fraud confirmation rate, made 33,000+ referrals (138% increase), and conducted 6,500+ site visits and 19,500 social media checks. Operation Twin Shield examined 1,000+ cases in Minneapolis-St. Paul, finding fraud or security concerns in 44% of interviews. USCIS has flagged 182 confirmed national security risks and issued a record 196,000 notices to appear in 2025.

But actual denaturalization outcomes are barely started: only 13 cases brought and 8 won in 2025, despite a target of 2,400 referrals per year (100-200/month). Operation Janus identified 315,000 cases with missing fingerprint data - a massive backlog. The DOJ issued a June 2025 memo directing attorneys to "maximally pursue denaturalization proceedings," but the legal process is slow: each case requires individual court proceedings.

Documented fraud patterns include: Feeding Our Future ($350M+, 57+ convicted, 72 of 78 defendants Somali), Chinese marriage fraud rings (11 charged in Navy sham marriage scheme), Indian H-1B visa fraud (Infosys $34M settlement), and Cuban asylum fraud ($18M smuggling ring, 12 indicted).

The U.S. has imposed a full travel ban on 19 countries (all visa types blocked): Somalia, Syria, Yemen, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Chad, Myanmar, Eritrea, Haiti, South Sudan, Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Sierra Leone, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Laos. An additional 19 countries face partial restrictions (immigrant visas + tourist/student visas blocked): Nigeria, Tanzania, Cuba, Venezuela, Mauritania, Turkmenistan, Senegal, Togo, Angola, Benin, Burundi, Cote d'Ivoire, Dominica, Gabon, The Gambia, Malawi, Antigua and Barbuda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Separately, 75 countries have had immigrant visa (green card) processing frozen indefinitely as of January 2026 - since a green card is the only path to U.S. citizenship, this effectively blocks permanent immigration from these nations.

The following 25 countries should be elevated to the full travel ban based on failed state status, poor human rights records, treatment of women, and security risks: Afghanistan, Pakistan, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Guinea, Mauritania, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Bangladesh, Algeria, Lebanon, Egypt, Uganda, Rwanda, Liberia, Tunisia, Jordan, Nepal, and Morocco. Many of these are already on the 75-country visa freeze or partial travel ban but should face full restrictions.

On January 20, 2025, Trump signed Executive Order 14160 to end automatic birthright citizenship for children born to parents who are neither citizens nor permanent residents. Multiple federal courts immediately blocked it, but the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in June 2025 (Trump v. CASA) to limit nationwide injunctions - allowing partial enforcement. The Court agreed in December 2025 to hear the full constitutional question, with oral arguments in April 2026 and a ruling expected by June-July 2026.

Separately, the administration has cracked down on birth tourism - the practice of traveling to the U.S. specifically to give birth and obtain citizenship for the child. The State Department now rejects tourist visas made primarily for birthing purposes, and criminal prosecutions have begun (a California "USA Happy Baby" operator was sentenced to 41 months for helping 100+ Chinese women give birth in the U.S.). Senator Blackburn introduced the Ban Birth Tourism Act (S. 1812) in May 2025. An estimated 33,000 babies are born annually to birth tourists, with the largest numbers from China, Russia, Nigeria, and Turkey.